Inter-annual Phenomena and Their Prediction

The course covers following topics: A brief review of the relevant components of the climate system, the statistical concepts used in climate analysis studies (e.g. correlation analysis, teleconnection maps, EOF analysis), the role of ocean-atmosphere feedback processes in intra- and interseasonal climate variability in the tropical region (e.g. ENSO, MJO) and in the extra-tropical region (e.g. Blocking, NAO, PNA), the concepts of weather and climate regimes, different prediction methods for short term climate variability (statistical methods, ensemble prediction methods, coupled ocean atmosphere models), probabilistic verification methods, predictability studies, examples of end user applications (e.g. seasonal forecasts) and the role of inter-annual and decadal climate variability in the current climate change debate.

Students will acquire an understanding of the key processes involved and will acquire expertise in analyzing and predicting short-term climate variability.

protected pageCourse Outlinelock 

Part I: Basics

• Chapter 1: protected pageIntroduction and basic conceptslock
  
• Chapter 2: protected pageWeather & climate data and analysis methodslock

Part II: Analysis

• Chapter 3: Inter-annual variability in the tropical region (protected pagePart Ilock) (protected pagePart IIlock)
  
• Chapter 4: Inter-annual variability in the extra-tropical region (protected pagePart Ilock) (protected pagePart IIlock)

Part III: Prediction

• Chapter 5: Prediction of inter-annual variability (Part I) (Part II)
  
• Chapter 6: Short-term climate variability and climate change

Part IV: Weather and Climate Services

• Chapter 7: Operational weather and climate services
  

Summary

• Summary