NCCR-CLIMATE Project P2.2 RECLIM

Regional Climate Modelling and Downscaling Studies

The proposal for this project can be found here.

Objectives

• to provide regional climate-change scenarios for the Alpine and European region for use in NCCR-climate impact studies
• to identify the factors and processes which determine the variability and change of water-cycle related extreme events
• to assess the role of continental-scale water cycle processes for climate predictability and climate change.

Methods

• Dynamical downscaling using a limited area regional climate model (COSMO-CLM, for Europe and the Alpine region) nested into a global GCM climate change scenario.
• Multi-year sensitivity experiments with the regional climate model using modified boundary conditions, soil hydrology and vegetation cover.
• Process studies

More details on some of the P2.2 RECLIM projects can be found on the research page (Group Schär, IAC ETH)

Links

RECLIM is linked to other NCCR-Climate projects by:

• contributing a regional-scale anthropogenic climate change scenario for impact studies in WP3 and WP4, using the GCM scenario from P2.1
• providing pertinent information on the sensitivity and variability of extreme events for P2.3 and WP3
• assessing the role of land-surface processes for interannual variability and seasonal forecasting for P2.3.

Research in the RECLIM group is also conducted in close collaboration with several European projects:

• PRUDENCE (2001-2005): Prediction uncertainties describing European Climate change and effects
  
• STARDEX (2001-2005): Statistical and regional dynamical downscaling of extremes for European regions
• ENSEMBLES (2005-2009): High-resolution regional climate simulations for the European continent (1950-2050)
  

Contacts

Former Members (incomplete list)

Publications

2008

Ahrens, B., and A. Beck, 2008: On upscaling of rain-gauge data for evaluating numerical weather forecasts. Meteorol. Atmospheric Phys., in press, published online

Ahrens, B., and A. Walser, 2008: Information based skill scores for probabilistic forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 352-363

Brockhaus, P., D. Lüthi, and C. Schär, 2008: Aspects of the diurnal cycle in a regional climate model. Meteorol. Z., 17, 433-443

Fischer, E.M., and C. Schär, 2008: Future changes in daily summer temperature variability:driving processes and role for temperature extremes. Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-008-0473-8

Hohenegger, C., A. Walser, W. Langhans, and C. Schär, 2008: Cloud-resolving ensemble simulations of the August 2005 Alpine flood. Q. J. R. Met. Soc., 134, 889-904

Hohenegger, C., P. Brockhaus, and C. Schär, 2008: Towards climate simulations at cloud-resolving scales. Meteorol. Z., 17, 383-394

Jaeger, E.B., I. Anders, D. Lüthi, B. Rockel, C.Schär, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2008: Analysis of ERA40-driven CLM simulations for Europe. Meteorol. Z., 17, 349-367

Jaun, S., B. Ahrens, A. Walser, T. Ewen, and C. Schär, 2008: A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 8, 281-291

Wild, M., Grieser, J. and Schär, C., 2008, Combined surface solar brightening and increasing greenhouse effect favor recent intensification of the hydrological cycle. Geophys. Res. Letters, 35, L17706

Zappa, M., M.W. Rotach, M. Arpagaus, M. Dorninger, C. Hegg, A. Montani, R. Ranzi, F. Ament, U. Germann, G. Grossi, S. Jaun, A. Rossa, S. Vogt, A. Walser, J. Wehrhan, and C. Wunram, 2008: MAP D-PHASE: real-time demonstration of hydrological ensemble prediction systems. Atmospheric Science Letters, 9, 80-87

2007

Déqué, M., D. P. Rowell, D. Lüthi, F. Giorgi, J. H. Christensen, B. Rockel, D. Jacob, E. Kjellström, M. de Castro, and B. van den Hurk, 2007: An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Climatic Change, 81, 53-70.

Fischer, E.M., S.I. Seneviratne, P.L. Vidale, D. Lüthi and C. Schär, 2007a: Soil moisture - atmosphere interactions during the 2003 European summer heat wave. J. Climate, 20, 5081-5099.

Fischer, E.M., S. I. Seneviratne, D. Lüthi, and C. Schär, 2007b: Contribution of land-atmosphere coupling to recent European summer heat waves, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L06707, doi:10.1029/2006GL029068.

Graham, L. P.; Hagemann, S.; Jaun, S. and Beniston, M. (2007): On interpreting hydrological change from regional climate models, Climatic Change, 81 , 97-122

Hirschi, M., S. I. Seneviratne, S. Hagemann, and C. Schär, 2007: Analysis of seasonal terrestrial water storage variations in regional climate simulations over Europe, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D22109

Hohenegger, C., and C. Schär, 2007: Predictability and error growth dynamics in cloud-resolving models. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 4467-4478

Hohenegger, C., and C. Schär, 2007: Atmospheric predictability at synoptic versus cloud-resolving scales. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1783-1793.

Jacob, D., L. Barring, O. B. Christensen, J. H. Christensen, M. de Castro, M. Deque, F. Giorgi, S. Hagemann, G. Lenderink, B. Rockel, E. Sanchez, C. Schär, S. I. Seneviratne, S. Somot, A. van Ulden, and B. van den Hurk, 2007: An inter-comparison of regional climate models for Europe: model performance in present-day climate. Climatic change, 81, 31-52.

Kjellström, E., L. Bärring, D. Jacob, R. Jones, G. Lenderink, and C. Schär, 2007: Modelling daily temperature extremes: Recent climate and future changes over Europe. Climatic Change, 81, 249-265

Stöckli, R., P.L. Vidale, A. Boone and C. Schär, 2007: Impact of scale and aggregation on the terrestrial water exchange: integrating land surface models and Rhône catchment observations. J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 1002-1015

Verbunt, M., A. Walser, J. Gurtz, A. Montani and C. Schär, 2007: Probabilistic flood forecasting with a limited-area ensemble prediction system. J. Hydrometeorol., 8 (4), 897-909

Vidale P.L., D. Lüthi, R. Wegmann, C. Schär, 2007: European summer climate variability in a heterogeneous multi-model ensemble. Clim. Change, 81, 209-232

2006

Frei, C., R. Schöll, J. Schmidli, S. Fukutome and P.L. Vidale, 2006: Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: An intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate models. J. Geophys. Res., 111, D06105

Fuhrer, J., M. Beniston, A. Fischlin, C. Frei, S. Goyette, C. Jasper and C. Pfister, 2006: Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland. Clim. Change, 79 (1-2), 79-102

Hirschi, M, S.I. Seneviratne, and C. Schär, 2006: Seasonal variations in terrestrial water storage for major mid-latitude river basins. J. Hydrometeorology, 7, 39-60.

Hirschi, M., P. Viterbo, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2006: Basin-scale water-balance estimates of terrestrial water storage from ECMWF operational forecast analysis data. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L21401

Hohenegger, C., D. Lüthi, and C. Schär, 2006: Predictability mysteries in cloud-resolving models, Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 2095-2107.

Raible, C.C., C. Casty, J. Luterbacher, A. Pauling, J. Esper, D. Frank, U. Büntgens, A. C. Roesch, M. Wild, P. Tschuck, P.-L. Vidale, C. Schär, and H. Wanner, 2006: Climate variability - observations, reconstructions and model simulations, Climatic Change, 79, 9-29, DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9061-2

Schmidli J., C. Frei, and P.L. Vidale 2006: Downscaling from GCM precipitation: A benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. Int. J. Climatol., 26 (5), 679-689

Seneviratne, S.I., D. Lüthi, M. Litschi and C. Schär, 2006: Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443, 205-209

Verbunt, M.; Walser, A.; Gurtz, J.; Montani, A., Schär, C. (2006): Probabilistic Flood Forecasting with a Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System: Selected Case Studies, J. Hydrometeorol., 8, 897-909

2005

Déqué, M., R. G. Jones, M. Wild, F. Giorgi, J. H. Christensen, D. C. Hassell, P. L. Vidale, B. Röckel, D. Jacob, E. Kjellström, M. de Castro, F. Kucharski and B. van den Hurk, 2005: Global high resolution versus Limited Area Model scenarios over Europe: results from the PRUDENCE project. Climate Dyn., 25, 653-670

Hohenegger, C. and P.L. Vidale, 2005: Sensitivity of the European Climate to Aerosol Forcing as simulated with a Regional Climate Model, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D06201

Kleinn, J. C. Frei, J. Gurtz, D. Lüthi, P.L. Vidale, and C. Schär, 2005: Hydrologic Simulations in the Rhine Basin driven by a Regional Climate Model, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D04102, doi:10.1029/2004JD005143

Müller, W.A., C. Appenzeller and C. Schär, 2005: Probabilistic seasonal prediction of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and its impact on near surface parameters. Clim. Dyn., 24, 213-226

Schär C. and C. Frei, 2005: Orographic precipitation and climate change. In: U. M. Huber, H. K. M. Bugmann and M. A. Reasoner (eds): Global Change and Mountain Regions: A State of Knowledge Overview, Springer, Dordrecht, 255-266

Schmidli, J. and C. Frei, 2005: Trends of heavy precipitation and wet and dry spells in Switzerland during the 20th century. Int. J. Climatol., 25, 753-771

Stöckli R. and P.L. Vidale, 2005: Modeling seasonal water and heat exchanges at European Fluxnet sites. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 80, 229–243

Van den Hurk, B., M. Hirschi, C. Schär, G. Lenderink, E. van Meijgaard, A. van Ulden, B. Röckel, S. Hagemann, P. Graham, E. Kjellström and R. Jones, 2005: Soil control on runoff response to climate change in regional climate model simulations. J. Climate, 18 (1), 3536-3551

Vidale P.L. and R. Stöckli, 2005: Prognostic canopy air space solutions for land surface exchanges. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 80, 245–257

2004

Hagemann, S., R. Jones, O.B. Christensen, M. Déqué, D. Jacob, Machenhauer, B. and P.L. Vidale, 2004: Evaluation of water and energy budgets in regional climate models applied over Europe. Climate Dynamics, 23, 547-567

Schär, C., P.L. Vidale, D. Lüthi, C. Frei, C. Häberli, M.A. Liniger and C. Appenzeller, 2004: The role of increasing temperature variability for European summer heat waves. Nature, 427, 332-336; doi:10.1038/nature02300

Schär, C., L. Vasilina, F. Pertziger, and S. Dirren, 2004: Seasonal runoff forecasting using precipitation from meteorological data assimilation systems, J. Hydrometeorol., 5, 959-973.

Seneviratne, S. I., P. Viterbo, D. Lüthi and C. Schär, 2004: Inferring changes in terrestrial water storage using ERA-40 reanalysis data: The Mississippi River basin. J. Climate, 17, 2039-2057

Stöckli, R. and P.L. Vidale, 2004: European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20-year AVHRR land surface parameters data set. Int. J. of Rem. Sensing, 25, 3303-3330

Walser, A., and C. Schär, 2004: Convection-resolving precipitation forecasting and its predictability in Alpine river catchments. J. Hydrol., 288, 57-73.

Walser, A., D. Lüthi, and C. Schär, 2004: Predictability of precipitation in a cloud-resolving model, Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 560-577.

2003

Frei, C., J.H. Christensen, M. Déqué, D. Jacob, R.G. Jones, P.L. Vidale, 2003: Daily precipitation statistics in regional climate models: Evaluation and intercomparison for the European Alps. J. Geophys. Res., 108 (D3), paper 4124, doi:10.1029/2002JD002287

Fukutome, S., C. Frei and C. Schär, 2003: Interannual covariance between Baiu precipitation and North Pacific SST. J. Meteorol. Soc. Japan, 81 (6), 1435-1456

Vidale, P.L., D. Lüthi, C Frei, S.I. Seneviratne, C. Schär, 2003: Predictability and uncertainty in a regional climate model. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 108 (D18), 4586, doi: 10.1029/2002JD002810

2002

Schmidli, J., C. Schmutz, C. Frei, H. Wanner and C. Schär, 2002. Mesoscale precipitation variability in the Alpine region during the 20th century. Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1049-1074

Seneviratne, S. I., J. S. Pal, E. A. B. Eltahir and C. Schär, 2002: Summer dryness in a warmer climate: a process study with a regional climate model. Clim. Dyn., 20, 69-85