ETH - IACETH - Knutti, Reto, Prof.

	How much more carbon for the two degree warming target? A new study shows that only a small fraction of the fossil fuel reserves can be burnt if a warming of two degrees above preindustrial should be avoided. Peak and equilibrium warming are determined by the total emitted carbon; a tonne of carbon is a tonne of carbon, whether today or in fifty years. Emissions must peak soon and be reduced be at least 50% globally in 2050 to avoid two degree warming. Nature paper: Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2°C Companion Nature paper: Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne Related commentary by the authors: The exit strategy Nature News and Views: Too much of a bad thing Nature Editorial: Time to act Related essay: The worst-case scenario Related commentary: Overshoot, adapt and recover BBC: 'Safe' climate means 'no to coal' Scientific American: How Much Is Too Much?: Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions ETH Life: How the “2°C target” can be reached NZZ: Was zählt, ist die kumulierte Menge Kohlendioxid ETH Life: Wie das «2°C-Ziel» erreicht werden kann 20 Minuten: Klimawandel erreicht kritischen Wert SF Tagesschau: Studie mahnt zu dringendem Klimaschutz Spiegel Online: Kritische Klimagrenze ist nur noch schwer zu erreichen
	The 2008 Olympics as an aerosol field experiment An analysis of satellite data shows that the effect of the Chinese government to reduce pollution during the 2008 Beijing Olympics was rather small. The improvement was significant but within the interannual variability range. Atmospheric transport is important for air quality in the city. GRL paper: Beijing Olympics as an Aerosol Field Experiment Nature Geoscience News and Views: Brief relief Wired News: Beijing clean-up was largely ineffective Science News: China Falls Short on Olympic Cleanup Physics Today: Smog reduced for Beijing Olympics
	How much climate change can be avoided? New simulations with the a comprehensive high resolution model under strong mitigation scenarios show that about half of the climate change can be avoided by the end of the century. A two degree warming target preserves much of the permafrost and Arctic sea ice. GRL paper: How much climate change can be avoided by mitigation Science editor’s choice: How low can we go? Nature Reports Climate Change Research Highlight: Cuts curb impacts News New York Times: Emissions Cuts Could Lessen Climate Change News 20 Minuten: CO2 muss um 70 Prozent gesenkt werden News Focus Online: Die Zukunft der Arktis
	Irreversible climate change Even if carbon emissions were instantly reduced to zero, most of the climate change that has occurred is irreversible for a thousand years. While some impacts are still uncertain, there are robust predictions for both short term impacts like droughts and long term effects like sea level rise. PNAS paper: Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions Realclimate background article: Irreversible Does Not Mean Unstoppable News Swissinfo: Study warns climate change is irreversible News New Scientist: Effects of climate change now irreversible News Washington Times: Climate change fallout irreversible NY Times Dot Earth: The Greenhouse Effect and the Bathtub Effect (worth reading!) ETH Life: Irreversible climate change ETH Life: Unwiderruflicher Klimawandel News Sonntagszeitung: Tausend Jahre Dürre News NZZ: Lang anhaltende Folgen der Klimaerwärmung News 20 Minuten: Es gibt kein Zurück

Research interests

My research interests are the changes in the global climate system caused by the growing emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. I use numerical models of different complexity, from simple energy balance to three-dimensional coupled climate models that resolve the atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice and their interactions. In particular, I work on simulation of scenarios for future climate change, the quantification of uncertainties in the climate response, and the development of methods to constrain important feedback processes in the climate system by comparing observations with model results.

More about my research

Lectures

Klimasysteme/Climate systems (Spring 2009)

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