Objective Model Calibration

Tuning of climate models in order to match observed climatologies is a common but often concealed technique. A previous project in our group was developing a methodological framework allowing for an objective model tuning (Bellprat et al. 2016). The framework is building a quadratic metamodel that serves as a computationally cheap surrogate of sampling the model parameter space (Bellprat et al. 2012). This method is used to systematically calibrate regional climate models over the tropical Atlantic, and it provides a method to find the set of parameters that gives the best model performance (Shuchang et al., 2022).
 

Objective Calibration
Calibration range estimated with the quadratic metamodel (MM). The blue area shows the empirical probability density of the performance assessed by the metamodel. The solid black line corresponds to a reference simulation (REF), which at the same time is the optimal simulation resulted from the expert tuning. The black dashed line shows the optimized simulation (OPT), and the black arrow shows the improvement achieved. The red lines denote the performance of the simulations by using expert tuning. (Figure 10 from Bellprat et al. 2012)

Bellprat, O., S. Kotlarski, D. Lüthi, and C. Schär (2012), Objective calibration of regional climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D23115, external pagehttps://doi.org/10.1029/2012JD018262.

Bellprat, O., S. Kotlarski, D. Lüthi, R. De Elía, A. Frigon, R. Laprise, and C. Schär, 2016: Objective Calibration of Regional Climate Models: Application over Europe and North America. J. Climate, 29, 819–838, external pagehttps://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0302.1

Liu, S., Zeman, C., Sørland, S. L., & Schär, C. (2022). Systematic Calibration of a Convection‐Resolving Model: Application Over Tropical Atlantic. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 127(23), e2022JD037303, external pagehttps://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD037303.

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